E-Type major price correction expected?!

[go.ran]

Interesting stuff to read and watch:

https://youtu.be/-F4qTZGq7II

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/09/22/asset ... no-crisis/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... collectors

https://www.classiccarsforsale.co.uk/bl ... es-to-fall

I've been following market and E-Type prices pretty closely for some time, and while experts are saying one thing, market (at least in Europe) looks a bit different:

1. Experts: You can get a pampered E-Type S3 V12 2+2 Coupe for EUR 69k.
Market: True, you can get them even from EUR 50k+.

2. Experts: You can get a modest E-Type S3 V12 2+2 Coupe for EUR 22k.
Market: Far from truth, there is still junk selling for EUR 30k which is ridiculous, E-Types in horrible condition that need complete restoration and investment of at least EUR 50k just to be in decent condition; If you are lucky you can find in Canada or States some examples between EUR 25k+ - EUR 30k+ which are in decent condition but usually without any documentation, questionable history...etc.

There is an ad for E-Type S3 V12 2+2 Coupe in Europe (NL) where the guy started the ad with EUR 52k, then it went down to EUR 42k when I approached him: 3 owners (currently a Dr.) who it seems know nothing about cars and is only lucky to have money, no documentation, no history of maintenance... currently the ad is at EUR 39,95k - car is maybe worth EUR 30k.

The other thing I noticed is the French mafia how I call them :-)
I found E-Type S3 V12 2+2 Coupe in Canada for EUR 23k from a lawyer, again no documentation, no history... the car disappears from the ad in the US and it pops in Euro ads for EUR 32,9k and they don"t even bother to add more pictures or description - horrible. There are a lot of cars from US/Canada advertised in Europe by French traders with a premium price which are btw not selling because the cars have questionable history and are usually junk.



Above chart as mentioned was not affected by the "financial crisis". Looking at the current economy and where things are going at the moment I am expecting additional corrections in E-type prices (Classic Cars in general) and wouldn't be surprised that prices go back to levels from 2009. Price direction since last financial crisis was simply not sustainable.

In 10-15 years from now, auto industry will stop manufacturing diesel/petrol powered cars.
In 30-35 years from now there is a possibility that there won"t be, or there will be only a small number of petrol stations with premium petrol price... a fact that nobody is even thinking about at the moment.

Let"s see how the current global situation ends, and let"s hope, for the sake of all of us, that we avoid another great depression.

Thoughts?

[Gfhug]

So reassuring to get such a positive message

[abowie]

What do you expect with a likely global recession?

Good time to have dry powder...

[ralphr1780]

Certainly a concern for those who are in the trade or who bought their car(s) as an investment or short time owning, less of a concern for the rest.

[mgcjag]

If E types are your hobby then i dont really see a problem......If its your investment plan then i assume you would have diversified........the real loosers could be the restoration/parts services where they could face job losses but thats just how business works........as for our hobby there are some potential bargains out there so long as you only use your disposable cash......Lets keep enjoying our hobby.....dont forget self isolate in the garage or go for a nice drive....KBO.. .Steve

[go.ran]

Agree with you Steve.

There are great opportunities and very good E-Types (SII/SIII 2+2) at around EUR 40k, but usually they are gone in couple of days/weeks.

Current situation, regardless of being generally negative, excites me since I'm looking to buy an E-Type and keep it forever, that"s why I"m being patient and picky with what I want. I"m here for the love of the car, not because I want to make a business out of it.

Ads for those SII/SIII 2+2 E-Types over EUR 50k, even though being great examples, are just sitting there for months without cars getting sold and it is no surprise to see a price drop of EUR 10k from time to time for those cars.

Before I find my perfect E-Type I also started looking into XJS...
could be a good choice for the start, there are very good examples for under EUR 20k.



The Jaguar XJS V12 Is the Cheapest V12 Sports Car On Earth

If E types are your hobby then i dont really see a problem......If its your investment plan then i assume you would have diversified........the real loosers could be the restoration/parts services where they could face job losses but thats just how business works........as for our hobby there are some potential bargains out there so long as you only use your disposable cash......Lets keep enjoying our hobby.....dont forget self isolate in the garage or go for a nice drive....KBO.. .Steve

[mgcjag]

Hi Goran...Private sales will be more expensive still becaus owners dont realise the real value of their vehicle so have the prices set too high in my opinion.....Auctions offer great opertunities there are some cheap cars going through them now

[go.ran]

Steve, I"m following these auction websites:
Hemmings
Bring A Trailer
The Market
Motor Klassik

...any other to suggest?

I was close in making a deal for EUR 29k for this '69 SII 4.2 2+2 E-Type with original docs, JHC, my perfect colour comination (silver+red), even the first GB license plate... but the seller is a wacko and the deal never happened... still trying though :-D

Hi Goran...Private sales will be more expensive still becaus owners dont realise the real value of their vehicle so have the prices set too high in my opinion.....Auctions offer great opertunities there are some cheap cars going through them now

[max-it-out]

Global stocks look like they may lose 40 % of their value , so a similar reduction in E-Type prices would seem reasonable.
Looking at it in a different way though , govts. might have to print around one trillion $ to salvage ( whats left of ) the global economy , which could trigger inflation , so better to hold a physical asset that's not going to depreciate ( like a Jag ).
Electric cars are the future , of course , and I suppose in a few years time ,people will view our cars in the same way we now think about steam powered vehicles - a quaint relic of a bygone era.

[politeperson]

If I cant drive it, at least I can put it in the living room and look at it.

[Durango2k]

I think that for a limited time there will be deflation.

Then they will print, still lots of companies will go bust, and then there will be a strong inflation.

Then there will be a currency reset... and then we all start again from scratch ;-)

Carsten

[go.ran]

Global stocks are down already -30% in the last month, but we don"t know where and when will this end.
9/11 crisis: -49%. 2008 financial crysis: -57%. Recession? We are already there. Great Depression? If it continues this way (Italy, US...) everything is possible.

Like every crysis this one also follows a well-worn pattern:
The first stage of that pattern is denial. The problem isn't that bad (when virus started being reported in China) and the thinking usually goes, it can't be, because bad things don't happen here, to us. At the moment we are all ignoring the fact that global economy came to almost a complete halt, which is a pretty bad fact, and we are forgetting that just few month back (end of 2019) countries like Italy, France, Germany... were all on the verge of recession. How can current situation not be bad?! It is in fact extremely bad. Not happening to us, right?

The second is containment. This is the stage where people, including perfectly capable leaders, try to make the problem disappear by giving it to someone else to solve.

The third stage is shame-mongering, in which all parties with a stake in the problem enter into a frantic dance of self-defense, assigning blame and claiming credit.

Fourth comes blood on the floor. In just about every crisis, a high profile person pays with his job, and sometimes he takes a crowd with him.

In the fifth and final stage, the crisis gets fixed and, despite prophesies of permanent doom, life goes on, usually for the better.

These are pure basics of crisis management. Let"s see where we end up this time.


I personally don"t believe electric cars in the long run are the future, simply because we are again relying on limited earth resources like lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and all this craziness and frenzy around Tesla is just total BS. I"m gonna stop here.

[mgcjag]

Lets try to keep this E type/Car related as per the topic title....we do have a pub chat section for anyone that wants to chat about the economy/inflation/ Covid etc..Steve

[WM86]

I put in a bid on an E-Type project at the cancelled / sealed bids Bonhams MPH auction at Bicester yesterday and will be interested to see what it sells for against the current backdrop.

There were 3 going : '64 3.8 FHC, '67 2+2 and an OTS S3 from memory.

[Gfhug]

Lets try to keep this E type/Car related as per the topic title....we do have a pub chat section for anyone that wants to chat about the economy/inflation/ Covid etc..Steve

[Philk]

I put in a bid on an E-Type project at the cancelled / sealed bids Bonhams MPH auction at Bicester yesterday and will be interested to see what it sells for against the current backdrop.

There were 3 going : '64 3.8 FHC, '67 2+2 and an OTS S3 from memory.

I had a look at the listing for one of these cars https://www.bonhams.com/auctions/26109/lot/29/.

I decided not to bid since I was concerned it was the back of one car and the front of another. The monocoque appeared to be Opalescent Gold Sand under the Green paint (see the picture showing the inner sills and the transmission tunnel plus gold is showing under the rear of the car where the green has flaked off. On the floor, the drop wells appear to have been removed to emulate a flat floor (the welds are also wrong connecting the outer sills to the floor so work definitely done there). At the front, the frame is red and, on the engine, whilst some gold is visible under the blue paint, there is no "1" on its side separating the compression ratio and the engine number. Turning to the inside, the speedometer is from a 4.2 (the tell-tale being the gaps between the numbers on the tripmeter) which then casts huge doubt on the claimed mileage. Finally, no mention of a heritage certificate, body tag inside the rear of the car and no sight of a commission plate.

The challenge with this type of car being sold is that it will go for a low sum given the above which, in turn, will be seen as a "downturn" in the market.

[WM86]

I looked at that one too Phil and did put in a bid but at a sum way below the estimate based on the factors you described. I was reassured that it was matching numbers and the engine did turn...

However, it means I can keep my E-Type pot dry for a better project car for me to fettle.

[Philk]

I think you had a good escape there...… As you say, keep the pot dry for a better project. The sad thing which a lot of people don't realise is that you can only really see if it is matching numbers as you go down the strip down process (top/side gearbox nos, pencil body numbers on rear of dashboard, engine number on crankshaft and flywheel, dated components etc etc etc).

We are very fortunate in having the mountain of information present on this forum. I have learnt so much from it over the past few years.

[tinworm]

Well lucky chap that got the FHC for £17K (ish) . The tiny group of project cars that are left in original RHD always have some compromise - we have had forty years of this hobby and all the best ones went years ago - I know as I have been at it for nearly that long. So either you pay through the nose for a car that ticks all the boxes etc (ie much more than £17k) or you take a few things on the chin and build a beautiful car that is a delight to own and drive and stop worrying about numbers not matching.

Barrie
as usual this is my own view and I don't put it here to annoy anyone !

[rswaffie]

No correction needed - at least not in the states....

https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/fl20 ... ter/855140