Up or down, or.....

[inner pickle]

Just wondering, there's usually a steer from a mail / post / item from the press indicating where prices are going. Maybe I've missed it recently?

I have no interest in selling my car, it's taken me 6 years to get to a point where it may have the wheels back on it anytime soon. However prices and guide prices which are perhaps helpful in underpinning the demand and industry seem to be obviously vague at the moment.

We have the usual US Auction market results but these are usually high spec/grade and not perhaps indicative of the UK market and it's spread of models/quality.

With auctions being on line I'm hearing pre Christmas one or two auctions had high levels of Lots unsold. I don't know how this reflected on projected asking prices and Lot reserves for future auctions?

Ebay has the usual spread of various specs going from the "very expensive / high quality" to the very expensive low quality. There's stuff on there Fred Flintstone would be seen dead in going for / seeking bonkers money. However is that me thinking that, or is it the very high priced ( 150K +++) market drawing up the low end? I suspect it maybe.
To answer my own question I suspect until we're out of Lock-down a "normal" market can't exist and prices reflect this revised market.

Are people / customers still out there?

Bearing in mind we still have major re-evaluation of the UK stock market expected, combined with a Brexit "re-balancing" forecast, followed by the Chancellor's forthcoming Covid Budget - all of which may impact on personal available cash reserves there's some more flexing in prices to come methinks.

[christopher storey]

Interesting question ... only on Thursday, a friend of mine who is a well respected dealer in Jaguars was contrasting the current position , where the market is almost silent, with that of the first lockdown where he was quite busy. Mind you, cold, damp, icy, snowy conditions do rather dampen enthusiasm !

[inner pickle]

Christopher, yes, forgot, it is practically mid-winter after all I'm reflecting on.

further, when your not able to physically go view a piece of kit norther of £35k are you really prepared to commit on someone else's word that its OK? I doubt it.

I recall when there were dealers out there punting various LH/RH series 1 & 2 cars at £70k we wondered who would ever buy them. That's only some 15 years ago, now look. May I've read it wrong and it's simply a shortage in stock /availability of early cars in any condition coupled with the driving demand for high quality refurbished ones?

Looking at it another way, if SNG Barratt have committed to a further extension to their business by opening up in Holland then they - I assume - have the planning and forethought to confirm the on going demand is there.?

and so it goes on..

[MCY44H]

I’ve put an article in the Club magazine this month showing the results of auction sales from last year. The market was surprisingly buoyant, with 311 E-types being sold through the 45 tracked auction houses, versus 317 in 2019 and 319 in 2018. I think this was because the Auction Houses moved quickly to offer new and enhanced online services together with Covid-safe facilities for their customers. In terms of prices, while things were pretty flat across most variants, it was a good year for the Series 3 V1s2. The Roadsters saw strong rises (medians rose by nearly 18%). At the top of the market, seven cars breached £100,000, whereas only two V12s had achieved those levels in the previous two years. The V12 2+2s did pretty well too, with median prices up 13%. I’d caution that strong years are sometimes followed by weaker prices in subsequent years. There are some graphs going back to 2013 shown in the article, so the wider trends can be seen.

It’s early days in 2021, but sales were sluggish in January (I have 11 cars on the database sold so far). I think this is because many auction houses have pushed back their events into March and April. Once we’re well into the Spring, it should be clear how much pent up demand there is out there. My sense (for what it’s worth) is that the market will pick up strongly once the virus threat recedes and the sun comes out.

[inner pickle]

Great insight thanks. Hard facts as opposed to opinion always makes interesting reading.

Interesting outline on the V12 position. No surprise really as like you say, along with 2+2's maybe they've been overlooked and the whole range is appreciating.

Next up the Silverstone Auction, be interesting to see how the Lots go there, parting with serious dough on a car you've not seen or driven is...…? Ebay-ish?

[chrisfell]

About 20 years ago roadworthy E-Types were less numerous than they are today, yet prices for even good examples were less than one might pay for a good XK. Look at XK prices now, and consider that those who lusted after them 20 years ago are mostly dead today. Now run forward 20 years. Who will be lusting after E-Types? Not us, we will mostly be dead. My kids’ generation lusts after highly tuned versions of early Golfs, not 1960s cars with mediocre performance. We are at, or near, or have just passed, peak E-Type. I am considering selling up in the next few years. I’m not waiting for the peak to become obvious.

[malcolm]

I guess it depends on whether you are concerned about the value of your car, or just enjoy driving it. I believe values will ultimately become very low compared to now, but I'm not particularly bothered. I'll enjoy it until I'm not allowed to drive it any more because petrol is all but banned, then it will go.

[Simon P]

My kids’ generation lusts after highly tuned versions of early Golfs, not 1960s cars with mediocre performance.

So some sort of thoroughbred Italian hatchback with impeccable competition pedigree might be in order......

[cactusman]

I'll sell mine once I'm dead

[tinworm]

I don't share the pessimism - JLR have just announced the end of the internal combustion engine for 2030 as far as they are concerned - to show how up to the minute they all are others will follow suit (Ford?) .This means everything that survives will become classic. The E-type can still mix it with modern traffic and as long as we can get fuel I think it will have a following. Of course some cars may have Nissan GTR engines fitted( I have just seen an American who took a Ferrari 308 GTSi in nice nick and has torn the v8 out and fitted a Turbo Honda engine in it - on you tube watch it and weep) - but I think the E-type will survive - plenty won't !

Barrie

[max-it-out]

There seem to be a few fairly cheap US import S2 2+2 cars on offer now . I can`t imagine why anyone would buy these now though - the maths doesn`t add up eg. cost of car £ 25 k , restoration cost 60 k ( average best guess ) , total cost 85 k . Value at auction c. 45 k .
I suppose the good thing about the E-Type is that it`s good to look at even if it`s not practical to use on the road .

[MCY44H]

I think there is an investor group in the E-Type market looking for returns. There is no CGT on cars in the UK and interest rates remain low. From what I can see, the investors have been concentrating on early 3.8 Roadsters and immaculate 4.2 Roadsters. Prices in the 3.8 Roadsters nearly doubled between 2012 and 2016 before falling back. But I think the majority of owners are people like us who love the car and either like to show it or (in our case) go touring or both.

As for the longevity of the car, I think it’s future is secure. This was proven beyond doubt last year. I was waiting at a set of red traffic lights on the Derby ring road, when I heard the thump thump thump of a rather oversize stereo from a pimped up car of indeterminate origin as it pulled up alongside. The darkened windows slowly slid down and a young head, complete with baseball cap in the reverse position popped out. “Hey Grandad, that’s a really sick car,” he shouted. “How much do you want for it?” It’s possible the future of our cars might just have been saved by the efforts of Paco Rabanne and Kingsman.

[inner pickle]

Yes, I don't hold with the view it'll sail out the window with the price going flat and no interest /demand. That's the opposite of the principle of ALL classic cars which have been recognized as classic's since the early 60's I guess.

If it's rare, good /excellent condition and stylish then it has a market. The e type has style off the scale which drives the lust for it - nope, I don't see that lessening more, likely to rise further.

as for current rates, maybe a review at year end would yield a better assessment.

[Tony]

With things the way they are with co-vid, even the 60 anniversary and a big push from Top Gear will not be around to boost the E Type promotion to potential buyers. But one never knows.

[Barry]

In the seventies, I remember buying a 1967 Alfa Spider Duetto. The best in the country at the time, in concours condition for £2500. I was earning £5000 a year as a young newly qualified architect. That same car would cost maybe £35,000 to £40,000 today. No newly qualified architect would be earning anything like that. They’d be more interested in buying a house and saving for a deposit. The average age of classic car owners is quite high these days, and judging by the comments here we are only able to afford our E-types because we have worked for some time to save our pennies! So, where are the future classic car buyers, let alone the lack of petrol stations in 20 years time? Exactly, it is not likely to be there as fashions and demands change. There will always be a market for exclusive low volume cars, and those with a competition history in particular. Paid for by the very wealthy. But, E-types, I am not so sure. Mass market cars that are not rare, will suffer value depreciation. Not good news for me, possibly, with a £200,000 E type, but am I in it for the value. No, I’ll enjoy it until I can’t! Maybe my kids might sell it and get £50,000 if they are lucky!!

[Fuel.inj]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Back in the 80’s and 90’s when I was more involved in the classic motorcycling scene, we used to discuss the future of early flat tank bikes and who will buy them in the future when the old guard pass on. What will be their value? but these early bikes still command good money today and are sought after.
When modern vehicles all become full size Scalextric, soulless and bland means of driving, then our beautiful looking and sounding machines will be even more admired and in demand.

[malcolm]

When modern vehicles all become full size Scalextric, soulless and bland means of driving, then our beautiful looking and sounding machines will be even more admired and in demand.

If you can find somewhere where you are allowed to drive them?